The East is Red

The Grauniad reports that the Chinese Academy of Sciences has drawn up a blueprint of what it expects China to be like in 2050.

In the past 25 years of expansion China has lifted an estimated 300 million
people out of poverty, but there are still more than 80 million living below the
government's poverty line of less than 668 yuan (£48) a year. By 2050, the
institute predicts that nobody will have to subsist on such a meagre income and
everyone will have access to social services.

It says the middle class will also enjoy an affluent lifestyle that only a small minority can currently afford. Half the population - which will grow to about 1.5bn - will own their
own car and be able to afford overseas travel.

The forecast is predicated on the transition of China from a predominantly agricultural society to a suburban, knowledge-based economy. This will entail moving 500 million rural dwellers into
industrial cities, then 600 million city dwellers into hi-tech suburban homes.
By 2050, 80% of urbanisation will be completed, the report says.

The authors admit the targets will be hard to achieve. He Chuanqi, who headed the research
team, told local reporters that China's economic situation is 100 years behind
the US and there is only a 6% chance of his forecasts being realised.

Six percent chance or not, it is a sign that the Chinese are beginning to think that they are tomorrow's country; with the other side of that being that the US is becoming yesterday's country. How that will play out, we'll see over the next decade. My guess is that by 2015 we should see a definite change in the balance of power in the world, though nothing tectonic. By 2025, though, it may be another matter.